Architektura a navrhování staveb

Analýza krizového trhu I

Budou mít architekti letos nějakou práci? Co bude, až karantény poleví? První ze ZOOM analýz  o vývoji trhu v oblasti architektury. Dnes na téma, jak se bude vyvíjet trh architektonického navrhování. Jak se promítne situace na stavebním trhu do praxe českých architektů a jak se změní trh v nejbližších dvou letech?

Úvodem

Ve slavné knize (a filmu) Kmotr se pro stav války používá termín ‚zalehnout na matrace‚.
Označuje nikoliv stav povalování, ale zvýšené aktivity, pozornosti a bdělosti. Dnes nejsme ve válce, i když to tak chvílemi vypadá. Jsme na začátku období, které bude vyžadovat aktivní marketing, sílu a odhodlání. Změní se celé segmenty pracovních činností a přeskupí se ekonomika. Některé obory se promění. Výrazně vzroste význam online technologií i schopností pružně reagovat na výkyvy, které s sebou přináší situace dosud nepoznaných změn.

Je konec března 2020 a zatím jsme všichni zalehli na matrace. A čekáme, co bude… Je jasné, že se nás všech nový stav ekonomiky dotkne. Proto jsme využili čas ‚na matracích‘ a pokusili se z dostupných dat a také na základě našich zkušeností predikovat, jak se budou vyvíjet specifické trhy služeb s vysokou přidanou hodnotou.

Jak se změní oblast B2B? Analyzujeme, jakými změnami projde česká architektura: nikoliv z hlediska stylu nebo výrazu. Soustředili jsme se ekonomické souvislosti a na komparaci vývoje stavebního a developerského trhu ve vazbě na architekturu a navrhování staveb. Architektura je velmi komplexní a zároveň kreativní činnost, kterou ekonomická krize a přicházející útlum na straně poptávky bezesporu zasáhne. V ZOOM analýze se pokusíme predikovat:

  • Jaké segmenty české architektury budou z makroekonomického hlediska nejvíce postižené?
  • Jak se promění relativně plný pracovní trh?
  • Jak bude v roce 2020 a 2021 fungovat trh nabídky a poptávky v oblasti architektury?
  • Jaká pozitiva současná krize české architektuře přinese?

„Zalehnout na matrace“ označuje nikoliv stav povalování, ale zvýšené aktivity, pozornosti a bdělosti.

Startujeme od zavřených úřadů

Aktuální situace na českém trhu architektonických kanceláří se významně proměnila 12. března 2020, kdy byl vyhlášen nařízením Vlády ČR na třicet dní nouzový stav, následovaný usnesením vlády o tři dny později o omezení volného pohybu obyvatel.

V týdnu od 16. do 24. března 2020 se bezprecedentně vyprázdnily české ulice a náměstí. Pro fotografy architektury nastal týden, který se zvláště v centrech historických měst nebude (doufejme) opakovat. Opatření přijatá z důvodu ohrožení zdraví obyvatel a výskytu koronaviru změnila náš pohled na historickou i moderní architekturu. Obrazně i doslova. Aktuálně se omezení dotkla výkonu profese architekta podobně jako jiných oblastí: změnily se možnosti výkonu podnikatelské činnosti, možnosti cestování a osobních schůzek a samozřejmě přibylo používání hygienických pomůcek.

Zpomalí se stavební úřady i architektonické soutěže

V řádu několika měsíců se architektům zkomplikuje a nejspíš i zpomalí chod stavebních úřadů a všechny navazující povolovací procesy. I když podle vyjádření České komory architektů…rady obcí a krajů mohou nadále jednat. Lze připustit účast zástupce formou dálkového připojení (online videokonference), takto přítomný člen orgánu může rovněž hlasovat. Zasedání zastupitelstev lze konat pouze výjimečně v případech, kdy je nutno jednat o záležitostech souvisejících s krizovou situací. Je tedy např. nutno počítat s odložením vydání územně plánovací dokumentace.“

Organizátorům vyhlášených architektonických soutěží pak Komora doporučuje „zvážit umožnění zasedání poroty, a to včetně hodnotícího zasedání, formou videokonference.“ Obojí v krátkodobém horizontu velmi zkomplikuje již běžící výstavbu a zpomalí řadu probíhajících územních nebo stavebních řízení. A v delším horizontu?

Protože máme řadu zkušeností s marketingem pro architektonická studia, stejně jako s každoroční přípravou Trend Reportu, komplexní analýzy českého nemovitostního trhu, zaZOOMovali jsme na oba segmenty a zkusili predikovat, jak se promění profese architekta v příštích dvou letech.

Záměrně jsme nepracovali s pojmy jako kreativita, originalita nebo autorský rukopis. Soustředili jsme se na dlouhodobá data, která máme o trhu nemovitostí a na znalosti fungování českého trhu architektury.

Srovnali jsme data z nemovitostního trhu se znalostí české architektury.

Profese architekta se promění

Jaký bude makroekonomický dopad současné přicházející krize na samotnou profesi architektů? Vzniklá světová pandemie přibrzdí vcelku dobře nastartovanou konjunkturu ve stavebnictví.

Majitelé nemovitostí, developeři a investoři tvoří páteřní síť celého realitního trhu. Pokud bychom tento rozsáhlý sektor destabilizovali, pak ohrožujeme celou naši ekonomiku, neboť výpadek příjmů státního rozpočtu by byl fatální. Pokud by opatření vlády trvala déle nežli minimální únosnou dobu, pak nebudou prostředky ani na tolik potřebnou zdravotní péči, o dopadech na celou společnost nemluvě,“ komentuje aktuální situaci v oblasti nemovitostí Ing. Zdenka Klapalová, prezidentka Asociace pro rozvoj trhu nemovitostí.

A zcela logicky zmiňuje nutnost provázanost mezi stavebním trhem – developerským trhem a architekturou.
Ekonomické vztahy jsou provázané a jejich nerovnováha může způsobit kolaps. Pokud bychom finančně destabilizovali silné domácí hráče, pak zastavíme investiční trh, a to jak komerční, tak rezidenční. V krušných dobách před deseti lety to byli právě oni, kdo trh rozhýbali a investovali. Bez silných domácích a etablovaných zahraničních společností, ať již developerských či realitních, by realitní trh nadlouho zkolaboval,“ pokračuje Zdeňka Klapalová.

Architektura a rezidenční trh

V oblasti stavebního developmentu Asociace pro rozvoj trhu nemovitostí předpokládá i všeobecné zpomalení oproti tomu, jak transakce běžely ještě před pár týdny. Na trhu registruje celou řadu equity investorů, připravených rychle reagovat na jakékoli příznivé příležitosti k investicím. Tito zájemci trh určitě podrží. Stavby developerů zatím běží a projekty se připravují. „Velké a silné společnosti se snaží fungovat na 100 %. Objevují se možné otazníky kolem zahraničních dělníků, karantén a podobně. Stejně tak veřejné projekty pokračují. Tradičně se řeší problém se schvalovacími procesy a jejich termíny, což není nic, nač bychom u nás již (bohužel) nebyli zvyklí.

Změny na rezidenčním trhu se nejvýrazněji projevují u vlastníků bytů, určených ke krátkodobému pronájmu turistům. Část takových bytů proto již majitelé začali nabízet k dlouhodobým pronájmům, kterých je především v Praze akutní nedostatek. Co se týče prodejů, zde lze očekávat nějaké konkrétnější dopady spíš v dlouhodobém horizontu, nicméně určité zpomalení jistě nastane. Na druhou stranu současná situace zřejmě nabídne zajímavé možnosti investorům, neboť nemovitosti jsou i nadále bezpečným způsobem uložení peněz.

Byty určené doposud ke krátkodobým pronájmům rozšíří dosud pokřivený trh nájemního bydlení. Pro české architekty to žádný význam mít nebude.

Z hlediska architektonické práce není segment pronájmů a sdílené ekonomiky příliš relevantní. Až na výjimky v něm platí pravidlo „levně připravit a rychle pronajmout“. Takže ačkoliv je v Praze i dalších velkých městech několik desítek tisíc bytů na krátkodobý pronájem, pro práci českých architektů to není trh, nebo jen zcela zanedbatelný. Takže i když nyní velcí operátoři incomingového turismu stojí prakticky na nule, s českou architekturou tento segment nijak nezahýbá.

Gastronomie & architektura

Podobně jako v oblasti nemovitostí bude mít trh architektonických kanceláří (a sem počítáme i jednotlivce vykonávající profesi architekta) svou dynamiku: jsou segmenty, které ekonomické dopady pocítí téměř okamžitě.

Podobně jako u výše zmiňovaných krátkodobých pronájmů bytů, jedním z nich prvních segmentů, kdo spadl bezprostředně po vyhlášení nouzového stavu v zemi, byl retail, oblast gastronomie a cestovního ruchu.

V praxi to jsou restaurační provozy, fast foody, kavárny a další stravovací zařízení, na která nouzový stav v zemi dopadl okamžitě. Pro řadu z nich se stane „stop stav“ během několika měsíců likvidačním a pochopitelně nebudou v nejbližších měsících pokračovat v expanzi. Nebude se stavět, nebude se rekonstruovat, fit-outy obchodních center nebo síťových restaurací a fast-foodů zůstanou tak, jak jsou. Dosud rostoucí trh cestovního ruchu a gastronomie se zpomalí a s ním i architektonická práce v této oblasti.

Porostou lokální restaurace, food řetězce naopak zpomalí expanzi. Architekti specializovaní na gastro provozy ve vazbě na to zpomalí svou produkci.

Hotely a ubytování

V cestovním ruchu lze v krátkodobém horizontu letošního léta a s výhledem do roku 2021 očekávat přesun poptávky „zpět“ do českých restaurací, hotelů a ubytovacích zařízení. Lidé budou výrazně méně cestovat do zahraničí, některé typické turistické regiony nejvíce postižené epidemií koronavidu, zmizí dočasně z mapy světového turismu.

Zajímavou výzvou pro českou architekturu bude podle našeho názoru skutečnost, že čeští turisté budou v nejbližších dvou sezónách vyhledávat tuzemskou dovolenou. To může být příležitost pro české architekty, jak „rychle“ přesunout svou práci: k interiérům, rekonstrukcím, stavebním úpravám, které nevyžadují složitý povolovací proces.

Je zřejmé, že poroste důraz na kvalitní lokální architekturu „s příběhem“. Ekonomicky silnější investoři využijí přesuny v rámci světového cestovního ruchu ve svůj prospěch: očekáváme nárůst v oblasti (již rostoucí) vinařské architektury, agroturistiky, zážitkové turistiky. Významný bude posun k „bezpečné“ rodinné turistice: pokud na to architektura dokáže rychle reagovat, lze očekávat rozvoj místních, menších hotelů, penzionů, farem a lokálních gastroprovozů. Síťové gastro koncepty podle nás pojedou v udržovacím režimu a mohutná expanze v rámci obchodních center v celé České republice zpomalí.

Globální řetězce budou svou expanzi spíše zpomalovat a místní značky a koncepty, pokud dokážou rychle reagovat, mohou výrazně uspět. Očekáváme vznik lokálních, menších hotelových nebo „cross-gastro-leisure“ řetězců v oblasti již zmíněné agroturistiky.

Poroste vinařská architektura, agroturistika a zážitkové koncepty. Jak na to bude reagovat česká architektura, je otázka.

Veřejné zakázky a architektura

Architektonickým studiím, která mají svůj byznys rovnoměrně rozvržený mezi „velké“ a „malé“ projekty, se v horizontu roku podaří pokles stavebního trhu ustát. Problémy naopak budou mít menší studia o několika lidech. Nejnáchylnější k výkyvům bude trh interiérových a veřejných zakázek, kde lze očekávat rychlý a výrazný pokles objemu zakázek v řádu desítek procent.
Je velmi pravděpodobné, že v souvislosti s plánovaným deficitem státního rozpočtu a přeskupením priorit jak na státní, tak městské úrovni, dojde i ke snížení počtu architektonických soutěží a veřejných zakázek v oblasti architektury. Stát, města i obce budou mít nyní jiné priority, než zušlechťovat veřejný prostor a stavět nové radnice, jako se to v poslední době povedlo v několika výjimečných počinech.

Je pravděpodobné, že stát a obce budou nyní vypisovat méně architektonických soutěží. Ubyde investic do veřejného prostoru.

Bydlení a architekti

Naopak více méně stabilní podle našeho názoru zůstane rezidenční sektor, kde investice do vlastního bydlení – zvlášť pokud je projekt již v běhu – může práci architektů zpomalit, nikoliv ale zastavit. Je pravděpodobné, že se posune fáze „rozhodnutí“, ale v dlouhodobém horizontu nečekáme velké výkyvy na rezidenčním trhu ve vztahu k novým architektonických projektům.

Segment vyšší střední a nejvyšší rezidenční výstavby nebude tak citelně zasažený poklesem trhu, protože na soukromé investory v této oblasti dolehne pokles ekonomiky později, nebo vůbec. Developerské projekty a architektonická práce na nich i díky pomalejšímu procesu přípravy nebudou na výkyv trhu reagovat tak bezprostředně, přesto lze očekávat – v intencích komentáře prezidentky ARTN – pokles výstavby.

Bydlet bude potřeba vždy: pravděpodobně zpomalí developerská výstavba, ale architekti budou mít nadále prostor u soukromých investic.

ZOOM: shrnutí

– Práce architektonických studií v České republice se stávající ekonomický propad v některých segmentech citelně dotkne. V některých sektorech, jako jsou návrhy interiérů a veřejných prostor, může jít o pokles objemu práce v nejbližších dvou letech o desítky procent.
Kancelářské projekty a rezidenční development v 2020-2021 zpomalí: s ním lze předpokládat i pokles architektonických návrhů v této oblasti.
Méně dotčena bude oblast bydlení a soukromých investic, zvláště ve vyšším a nejvyšším segmentu.
Pokles veřejných investic a architektonických soutěží bude způsobený jinými prioritami veřejných a municipálních segmentů.
– Vzniknou nové lokální koncepty, zvláště v oblasti cestovního ruchu a gastronomie.
– Některá česká architektonická studia se přeorientují na jiný typ podnikání, nebo svou práci rozšíří o další obory.

Stáhnout  ZOOM analýzu

(pdf)


Autor
Radek Váňa, Ph.D. vystudoval Filosofickou fakultu University Karlovy. Od roku 1999 se aktivně pohybuje na poli české architektury a realitního trhu. Vedl a zakládal několik odborných architektonických a developerských časopisů. Pracoval a pracuje pro developerské společnosti, investiční skupiny i významná česká architektonická studia. Od roku 2009 vede marketingovou agenturu Idealab, která se specializuje na poradenství a marketing v oblasti architektury a nemovitostního trhu. www.idealab.cz

Další témata, která mohou být přínosem i s ohledem na tuto analýzu najdete zde. Například konkrétní návody pro:
Obsahový marketing
Budování online strategií
B2B marketing

Rubriku Marketing pro ARCHIZOOM.CZ připravují specialisté z týmu Idealab, kteří mají dlouholeté zkušenosti s marketingem, analýzami trhu, budováním značek a PR.

 

Podívejte se na další články z rubriky Business & architektura:

Čeští architekti v době přicházející krize I.

Marketing pro architekty I: Jak správně na LinkedIn

Jak na PR a marketing v architektuře

Pokud jste při čtení zaznamenali chybu nebo překlep, napište nám, prosím, na e-mail redakce@archizoom.cz.

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